Forecasting weekly reference crop évapotranspiration series

نویسندگان

  • S. MOHAN
  • N. ARUMUGAM
  • N. Arumugam
چکیده

Abstract Evapotranspiration (ET) is an important process in the hydrological cycle and needs to be accurately quantified for proper irrigation scheduling and optimal water resources systems operation. The time variant characteristics of ET necessitate the need for forecasting ET. In this paper, two techniques, namely a seasonal ARIMA model and Winter's exponential smoothing model, have been investigated for their applicability for forecasting weekly reference crop ET. A seasonal ARIMA model with one autoregressive and one moving average process and with a seasonality of 52 weeks was found to be an appropriate stochastic model. The ARIMA and Winter's models were compared with a simple ET model to assess their performance in forecasting. The forecast errors produced by these models were very small and the models would be promisingly of great use in real-time irrigation management.

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Forecasting Lahi Production in India using Fuzzy Time Series and Diffusion of Innovation

Most of the existing forecasting techniques give the basic idea of crop production per year. There are various forecasting techniques, we have worked on two techniques one is Fuzzy Time Series and another one is Diffusion of Innovation. Research paper will focus on (SAII) study, analyze, improve and implement strategies of forecasting techniques depending on nature of data and we have done SAII...

متن کامل

Comparison of Biophysical and Satellite Predictors for Wheat Yield Forecasting in Ukraine

Winter wheat crop yield forecasting at national, regional and local scales is an extremely important task. This paper aims at assessing the efficiency (in terms of prediction error minimization) of satellite and biophysical model based predictors assimilation into winter wheat crop yield forecasting models at different scales (region, county and field) for one of the regions in central part of ...

متن کامل

Forecasting Destination Weekly Hotel Occupancy with Big Data

Accurate forecasting of future performance of hotels is needed so hospitality constituencies in specific destinations can benchmark their properties and better optimize operations. As competition increases, hotel managers have urgent need for accurate short-term forecasts. In this study, time series models including several tourism big data sources, including search engine queries, website traf...

متن کامل

Temporal Downscaling of Crop Coefficient and Crop Water Requirement from Growing Stage to Substage Scales

Crop water requirement is essential for agricultural water management, which is usually available for crop growing stages. However, crop water requirement values of monthly or weekly scales are more useful for water management. A method was proposed to downscale crop coefficient and water requirement from growing stage to substage scales, which is based on the interpolation of accumulated crop ...

متن کامل

A Comparison and Evaluation of Performances among Crop Yield Forecasting Models Based on Remote Sensing: Results from the Geoland Observatory of Food Monitoring

In the context of the GEOLAND EC FP6 project the comparison of different remote sensing based approaches for yield forecasting over large areas in Europe are tested and results inter-compared. In particular the methods tested include the ones in use within the MARS-Crop Yield Forecasting System as the results from the Crop Growth Monitoring System model and vegetation indicators derived from Lo...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

عنوان ژورنال:

دوره   شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2007